How should investors navigate geopolitical risks in early 2024?
Samy Chaar, Chief Economist

Christian Abuide, Head of Asset Allocation

Key takeaways

• Rivalry between US and China-led blocs, possible Middle East conflict escalation and a busy political calendar keep geopolitical risks elevated as we enter 2024
• We still expect the Israel-Hamas conflict to remain largely localised. Red Sea attacks are affecting trade but should have a manageable inflationary impact. We expect oil prices to drift up towards the low-end of a USD 80-90 a barrel range, with short-lived price spikes possible in an extreme scenario
• A global ‘decoupling’ is changing global trade and investment flows. Securing supply chains and strategic industries has become an important theme
• We believe 2024 should be a positive year for financial markets, but remain vigilant in an uncertain geopolitical environment. Tactically, we keep portfolio risk at strategic levels, with a quality bias and a preference for US assets.